Friday, March 27, 2009

Greatest Goalie of All Time: For Now


In a strange twist of fate the duel for the crown of Greatest Goaltender of All Time was ended on March 17, 2009. Martin Brodeur had broken Patrick Roy's record for most all time wins for a goaltender. Brodeur earned number 552 with a 3-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks.

Brodeur broke St. Patrick's record on St. Patrick's day and fittingly enough Roy was on hand for the tying game against his form team, the Montreal Canadiens, on March 14.

Brodeur has played 17 season in the NHL, all with the New Jersey Devils, and looks to have the gas for at least two more. This makes the likelihood of the bar being raised even higher more of a reality.

Brodeur has averaged 32 wins a season over his career and if he does retire in two seasons will likely total roughly 600-620 wins over his career. Brodeur would also be 38 upon his retirement.

This is a huge record that will remain standing for quite a long time. Among the current crop of top flight goaltenders there is really no stand-out rival to Brodeur. Many of his colleagues are sitting in the 300-400 wins column. The closest active player to Brodeur is Curtis Joseph of the Maple Leafs with 453 wins. Joseph, 41, will probably only play a couple more seasons as well and will finish his carreer with around 475 wins.

The question is, who could possibly break this record?

Realistically, there is not any player who could currently challenge Brodeur's potential 600 plus wins.

If I had to choose someone to do it though I would put my money on the rookie netminder for the Columbus Blue Jackets, Steve Mason.

Mason, only 20, has played 53 games for the Blue Jackets this season and racked up a respectable 31 wins as well as a league leading 10 shutouts on the season.

Could this young man be the next Brodeur?

Theoretically? Yes.

If Mason were to keep up his current win percentage then he could break Marty's record.

Let us delve into the realm of theory and what ifs to see the potential that Mason could have.

In his first season he has gained 31 wins, multiply that by the 17 seasons that Brodeur has played and you have 527 wins. This falls 23 wins short of Brodeur's current record.

On first glance this doesn't bode well for the rookie, but Mason has only played in 53 games this season. Most top tier goalies play around 70 games a year. To accomadte this we will take Mason's win percentage, 58%, and run the numbers with that. That brings us to a staggering 702 projected carreer wins in a whopping 1120 games played. Those would both be massive and potentially unbeatable records.

Those numbers could be highly skewed so lets just say he playes 60 games a year, that is still a projected 610 wins and a potential record.

If Brodeur were to play to 19 or even 20 seasons I would expect him to hit around 610 wins if not more.

If Mason were to play 19 or 20 seasons we might see him break 650 wins.

Of course all of this is hypothetical. Mason has played almost a full season and played very solid hockey. Could he break Marty's record? I don't know, but the chance is there. If he can keep up his production or even get better we could see Mason's name placed among the pantheon of goaltending.

As an aside, Brodeur is just three shutouts away from breaking Terry Sawchuck's record of 103 carreer shutouts. Mason has 10 this season. Think about that one.