When six does not equal six

As a fan of the Olympics it pains me to have any criticism of the world's greatest sporting event but I just can't help it. The way we keep count of medals is wrong. Dead wrong.

On February 13 Apolo Anton Ohno earned his sixth Olympic medal. He skated to Silver in the Men's 1500m Final. Immediately broadcasts were saying he has tied Bonnie Blair as the the greatest Winter Olympian in American history.

Yes, he does have six medals and the chance to win more at these games.

Yes, Bonnie Blair earned six as well.

Yes, they are "technically" tied in medal count. That's the end of it though.

Bonnie Blair won five gold medals at three separate Olympics and one bronze in Lillehammer in 1994. Ohno could earn a gold medal in his third Olympics this year but he would not have the sheer amount of gold medals to be considered better than Blair.

I'm all for congratulating people on the overall number of medals but there is this strange disparity between number of medals earned and the color. I recall a moment when I checked the medal tracker on Vancouver 2010 website and found it rather odd that the United States and Germany were ahead of Switzerland even though the Swiss had three golds at the time and neither the U.S. nor Germany had more than one.

I would like to see, perhaps, a point system in place to gauge how well a country is doing in the games. Something simple where the different medals are weighted differently in points. Gold would be worth three points; silver, two and bronze, one point.

To see how the system would play out we can look at a few countries as guinea pigs.

The United States is currently in the numerical lead with 14 medals. Under the point system they would have 27 points (15 from five golds, six from three silvers and six from six bronzes) and a rather large command of first place still.

Next, we can look at Korea, Austria and Norway who are currently tied for fifth place with five medals each. In a points-based system Korea would rank higher than Austria and Norway because they have five better medals. Korea's three golds and two silvers would net them 13 points compared to Austria and Norway's nine.

I'm not suggesting this system is perfect but I think it is at least a better evaluation of quality versus quantity.

Ohno will almost assuredly win another medal in this games and NBC will loudly proclaim him as the greatest American Winter Olympian of all time.

That's all well and good for NBC.

I know who the real greatest Winter Olympian is, so does Bonnie.

Super Bowl XLIV Prediction

When it comes to the Super Bowl there are two types of games: the win that everyone sees coming because the two teams are nowhere close to one another in skill level and the tight game that could go either way. This year is definitely the latter.

Usually before the Super Bowl I’ll have a team locked in that I think will win – not necessarily the one I want to win though. In 2008 I was thought the Giants would win, though not in such dramatic fashion. The same was true in 2009 with the Steelers. This year though has been very perplexing.

In my heart I really want to see the Saints win. While I’m not a big fan of New Orleans in any way I just think winning a Super Bowl would mean so much to that city and the Saints fanbase. A Super Bowl ring would also greatly help Drew Brees career. With a ring he would be placed where he rightly belongs – the ranks of the elite players in this league.

The Colts are definitely the more dominant team on paper and on the field most days. While I do not think the loss of DE Dwight Freeney will be as devastating to the Colts as some people say my dad disagrees. He thinks it would be one of the biggest pre-Super Bowl injuries in recent history. We both agreed that he will see some time, albeit limited snaps, during must-pass third down situations.

Offensively these two teams are very similar. Elite QB: check. 2-3 good receivers: check. The biggest offensive difference I see with these teams is with the backs and tight ends. Joseph Addai is a good runner but Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell are a better overall rushing unit. On the flip side, Indianapolis wins out in the tight end category. Dallas Clark is possibly the best tight end in football right now. While Jeremy Shockey can catch the ball and get some yards I still can’t see him being able to make a bigger impact than Clark.

When it really comes down to it I really like the Saints in this game. If you’re going to cheer for an underdog you might as well cheer for the underdog that’s never been to a Super Bowl and was nearly washed away by Hurricane Katrina.

I’m picking the Who-Dats to win 32-27.

--Photo from nfl.com

Divisional Matchups and Predictions

Last weekend I finished a paltry 1-3 in my predictions, I'm hoping to greatly improve that score this weekend. I correctly predicted Dallas' win but failed to realize that the Jets really are a much better team than the Bengals, the Ravens really wanted to stomp the Pats and that my Packers could just not overcome a 21 point deficit to win the game.

Enough looking back it's time to check out this weekend's match-ups.

Saturday

NFC Divisional Round: Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints - 4:30 EST

This game looks to be a repeat of the Cardinals previous playoff game against the Green Bay Packers. Both teams have high scoring offenses and capable defenses. As with the previous match-up the quarterbacks will play the biggest roll in determining who wins. Kurt Warner is coming off an amazing 29 of 33, 379 yard and five touchdowns performance. Drew Brees hasn't had to play a meaningful game for quite a while now and will have to become the quarterback he was at the beginning of the season. The real key to this game is going to be which defense can stifle the other team's quarterback the best. Both teams feature good running backs in Wells (Cardinals), Thomas and Bush (Saints) but the real key will be the passing game. If Warner stays out of interception and sack trouble he could having a field day picking apart the Saints secondary. His biggest obstacle will be Darren Sharper who was tied for the league high in interceptions with nine. Brees will just need to be his usual self. If he can put the ball where he wants it with each throw the Cards could get into a large hole - much like the one they put Green Bay in. This game will probably come down to a 4th quarter duel. I do like the Cardinals chances more just because they have been playing better down the stretch and New Orleans looked like they were just sitting back waiting for the playoffs all the way back in their first loss to the Cowboys.

Prediction: Cardinals win 41-38

AFC Divisional Round: Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts - 8:15 EST

The Ravens come to Lucas Oil Field with a lot of momentum coming off their upset win against New England. While the Pats packed it in during the first half look for Peyton Manning and the Colts to keep the defense on their toes all game. While Manning has historically not played well coming off a first-round bye in the playoffs he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I can't see Manning having four turnovers like Brady did. The Ravens need QB Joe Flacco to step his game up this time around. He threw for only four completions against New England and had a quarterback rating of 10.0. The Ravens will not be able to win this game on the shoulders of Ray Rice and the defense again. The Colts were able to beat the Ravens in week 11 by forcing them to kick field-goals instead of scoring touchdowns. They still won by only two points, 17-15. If the Ravens can keep the colts scoring corralled like that but still manage to get some touchdowns of their own they can win this. Realistically, this is the playoffs and this is Peyton Manning - he's going to make some plays. I like the Ravens' chances here but I'm going to have to go with the Colts in this one. Most of their key players are healthy and their defense has shown that they are good enough to at least stop a Ravens-type offense.

Prediction: Colts win 28-21

Wild-Card Matchups and Predictions

With the first round of the playoffs beginning shortly I wanted to get my two cents in on who I like for each match-up and my predictions for the games.

Saturday

AFC Wild-Card: New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals - 4:30 ET

The Jets may have defeated the Bengals 37-0 last Sunday and have all the momentum going into this game but I just don't think they'll come out the winner in this game. You can say all you want about Cincy rolling over last weekend and you can say everything you want about the Jets running attack and defense but I can't see Bengals losing this one. The Bengals swept a tough AFC North with teams that play the same style of defense as the Jets, they're built to defeat a team like this and I think they will.

Prediction: Bengals win 27-17

NFC Wild-Card: Philidelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys - 8:00 ET

It's hard to beat a team three times in one season and this will be the case again Saturday night in Dallas. The Cowboys returned the favor to the Eagles for last year's 44-6 beating with a 24-0 thrashing of their own. While the Cowboys are playing their best football right now the Eagles are playing out of sync. If Philly gets its act together on offense with big plays to Maclin and Jackson they could quickly start to built a sizable lead. For the Cowboys they need to have another 200+ yard rushing performance. They have three good backs yet still throw the ball a lot each game. They had good results last week on the ground so I think they should stick with it. Two years ago the Cowboys beat the Giants twice in the season before losing the third game in the Wild-Card round, the same could happen tonight if the Cowboys aren't careful. I think this is actually the year the Cowboys win a playoff game and Tony Romo starts to gain a little more credibility.

Prediction: Cowboys win 34-24

Sunday

AFC Wild-Card: Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots - 1:00 ET

This is a hard game to pick: on one hand New England has not lost a home playoff game in Foxboro, on the other Baltimore has shown that they can be very streaky. New England looks worse for the wear at first glance with a season ending injury to Wes Welker and their earlier trades of Richard Seymour have softened up their defense. Belichick is one of the smartest coaches in the league and could make the Pats better just by shear will. The Ravens have shown great defense and offense several times this year but never consistently. Joe Flacco is returning to the post-season for his second time and has shown no fear of airing it out in big games. Ray Rice is running better than ever right now and could be a catalyst in this game if the Pats cannot contain him. I want to say the Ravens will win this but I'm just not sure. The loss of Welker will definitely hurt New England but they have a lot of weapons to use. In the end I think New England will keep their perfect home playoff record for at least one more game.

Prediction: Patriots win 34-27

Sunday

NFC Wild-Card: Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals 4:40 ET

Despite all the talk that the two lopsided victories Green Bay has over Arizona were, a) a pre-season match-up and b) a pointless game for the Cards; I think Green Bay will take this one. Rodgers is showing great poise heading into his first post-season foray and the Packers defense has shown they can stop the passing game with big plays from Charles Woodson. The Packers lead the league in takeaways (40) and with a streaky quarterback like Kurt Warner you could see the Packers run away with it if he starts throwing picks. Arizona does pose several threats of their own. They have shown that they have a capable running game with Wells and possess one of the greatest receiving tandems in the league. Despite how good the Packers secondary has been this season it has its holes. Roethlisberger picked it apart when it mattered most and Warner does possess that same ability and more than capable targets.

Prediction: Packers win 30-20

Ringing in the new year

With 2009 in the rear view mirror it's time to look back at the past year and take stock of what has happened. It is also time to look forward and see what may be, both in the world of sports and right here at SASportsGuy.

I promise I can explain my absence over the past month.

I got married.

I spent the first couple of weeks in December getting ready for the big day, Dec. 18. I then spent the next couple of weeks relaxing and enjoying my honeymoon in Disney World. It was a blast to be there for our honeymoon and my new wife's birthday, Dec. 26, but Disney is not the place to be at Christmas. Long lines for everything, even bathrooms.

Highlights of the trip were all the people who work at that parks telling us "Congratulations" all the time and my induction into the Green Army - you know those army men from Toy Story - we also broke the family record for the Mount Everest roller coaster. Ten times in two hours, that was a great night.

Looking back at the 2009 year in sports I've had a lot of mixed feelings. Some of my favorite teams did great, others did okay and some just plain sucked.

I watched the Rampage come storming back in the second half of last season. I watched the Missions play a couple of home games in the first round of the Texas League playoffs. I watched the Mets go from a guaranteed playoff team to the AAA Mets Replacement Squad. It's safe to say that your season is going bad when you have an entire starting pitching rotation on injury reserve in August. I also watched the Huskers fulfill my pre-season prophecy. I told everyone I could that the Huskers would take the Big 12 North this year and they did. Were it not for a questionable play review and some bad Nebraska offense we would be playing in a BCS Bowl game too. Much to my delight, I have also watched my beloved Packers and Aaron Rodgers romp around the NFL as one of the best teams in the league. We're playoff bound and honestly I like our chances of reaching the Super Bowl.

The biggest 2009 sports moment for me had to be learning that two days after our wedding my wife and I would be playing one another for the championship game in our fantasy league. I know I'll be sleeping on the couch for a while but I refused to tank the game and can now proclaim that I am the 2009 San Antonio Sports Guy Football League Champion.

There's so much more that happened but that would take way too much time for me to type and way too much time for anyone to read.

Looking forward to 2010 there's a lot to be excited about.

I'm really looking forward to my New Year's resolution: spend more time writing. I'm going to do everything I can to publish at least one post a week this year. I've been doing this one post a month thing for a year and it is time for me to step-up and really deliver. This blog is in its second year of existence and it deserves to be kept up with more. I plan on doing just that.

As for sports, I'm anxiously awaiting the result of Sunday's Packers playoff game. I know the Cardinals threw in the towel early last week but I just don't see them knocking of Green Bay. Our team is running on all cylinders right now: Rodgers is playing near flawless football, the defense is leading the league in takeaways and ranked No. 2 overall in the league and our offense is rolling along right now. My biggest concern is our secondary. The loss of Al Harris is going to be tough but I still like our chances.

The Rampage are looking good right now. We're still stuck at the bottom of our division at 16-16-3-2 but the season is far from over and we're only five points or so from being in the playoff hunt. If we play the same way we did in the second half of last season we could be looking at a nice playoff run. There's not a lot I enjoy more than watching hockey stretch into May and even June.

Even though the Mets 2009 season was a flop I'm excited for 2010. We just signed Jason Bay and if we get most of our injured guys back we can be a contender for the division again. Am I optimistic? Mildly. Am I hopeful? Of course.

February will be a great month with the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver. I love the team sports we have here in the states but there is nothing more exciting to me than the Olympics. Watching the best athletes for all over the globe is amazing. I've seen some amazing Stanley Cup games but the Gold medal games in the Olympics can be completely awe-inspiring. I will still never forget watching Sweden win it all in Lillehammer during the 1994 games.

I'm feeling very positive about the coming year and what it holds in store. Anything could happen: the Mets could make a run, the Spurs could win a fifth title, my Rangers could win the cup for the first time in 15 years. The possibilities are endless.